Buy Or Don’t Buy

I don’t follow college football (that’s why happens when you have a foreign father and went to college at a school with no team), and I possess little-to-no analytical knowledge of the NFL, but still! I’m going to be live-blogging the first round of the 2010 NFL Draft, starting in about…oh, 15 minutes. Why?

1. Everyone loves the draft. No matter who you root for, you can imagine that whoever your team picks is going to be AWESOME. I mean, just look at their college highlight reel!

1a. If you have a bad team, the chances of getting an AWESOME player are even higher! Or if you have a good team, you’re probably only one player away from winning the Super Bowl!

2. It’s in prime-time this year! (That changes nothing, but just go with it.)

Ready? OK! Pumped? Me too. I even spent all last night making some images that can go with this post. I hope you all can enjoy them.

7:33: Roger Goodell: “The thing that makes the NFL Draft special is that it’s about hopes and dreams.” So true!

7:35: Rams been on clock for 5 minutes. What, they’re still deciding?

St. Louis Rams pick Sam Bradford (QB, Oklahoma) — Buy!

As expected, Rams pick Bradford. Having passed on Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco and Mark Sanchez, there really was no other way they could go here. The fact that he’s a spread offense quarterback is tricky, but almost every college QB is a spread guy these days. I’m more worried about his shoulder. The one time he had a less-than-good offensive line, his shoulder went supernova.

Detroit Lions pick Ndamakong Suh (DT, Nebraska) — Buy!

Suh is the best player in the draft. I know that because everyone says he’s the best player in the draft. (Also, because I saw him tear up Colt McCoy in the Big 12 Championship.) He’s a defensive player, the Lions defense sucks. It’s a win-win! (Also, the crowd totally sounds like they’re booing, but I can only assume they’re saying “Suuuuuuhhhhh.”)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers pick Gerald McCoy (DT, Oklahoma) — Buy!

Again, the third pick goes as expected. People say McCoy’s good, I believe them. And he’s crying! Crying = high-character guy. “At defensive tackle, desire may actually outweigh talent!” Good to know, pundits!

7: 53: But who will Redskins draft? They HAVE to go OT, or Donovan McNabb will cry.

Washington Redskins pick Trent “Silverback” Williams (OT, Oklahoma) — Buy!

It was either him or Russell Okung, but apparently Williams is better right now. Donovan McNabb will not cry himself to sleep tonight.

8:04: But now what will the Chiefs do? Noo they’re calling Berry!! Goddammit.

Kansas City Chiefs pick Eric Berry (S, Tennessee) — Don’t Buy!

This is where my Eagles fandom is takes over my football fandom. I think Berry is going to be a great player, but I had pipe dreams of the Eagles trading up to get him.

Has to be Okung now, right?

8:12: Also, if it is Okung, how boring has the top quarter of this draft been? We were spoiled with teasers of trades and shockers, and the first six picks could have been predicted 2 months ago. Still, the Raiders are picking soon…

Seattle Seahawks pick Russell Okung (OT, Oklahoma State) — Buy!

The age-related decline of great units always depresses me. Like McCoy and the Bucs’s front four, so goes Okung and the Seahawks offensive line. Rejuvenation!

Cleveland Browns pick Joe Haden (CB, Florida) — Buy!

With the exception of the Williams-Okung swap, this draft has gone exactly the way every mock draft predicted in February. Has any other draft been this predictable?

Raiders’ pick coming soon. PLEASE: INSANITY!

Oakland Raiders pick Rolando McClain (ILB, Alabama) — Don’t Buy!

I count on the Raiders to be insane. But taking a middle-linebacker ranked in the teens at pick 8? That’s not insane, that’s just a normal maybe-bad, maybe-good decision. I can’t do anything with that.

Buffalo Bills pick C.J. Spiller (RB, Clemson) — Buy/Don’t Buy!

Our first surprise! The Bills have former first-rounder Marshawn Lynch and underrated Fred Jackson at running back. They’ll probably trade Lynch now, but how much leverage do they have? But their quarterbacks suck and they play in the cold, it’s not a HORRIBLE move. But their O-line kinda sucks still. I’m wishy-washy about this.

Also, how far will Jimmy Clausen fall now?

Jacksonville Jaguars pick Tyson Alualu (DT, California) — Don’t Buy!

I told you, I don’t follow college football. I have not heard anything about Tyson Aluahu. At #10, do the Jags need another player no one has heard of?

Mel Kiper just called him “a quick penetrator.” No Pittsburgh-QB jokes!

Also, the Jags/Eagles didn’t want to trade?

Our first trade! Denver trades down a couple spots!

San Francisco 49ers pick Anthony Davis (OT, Rutgers) — Buy!

Good pick! 49ers needed a right tackle and were afraid of a run on lineman, and it only cost them a 4th rounder!

Another trade!

San Diego Chargers pick Ryan Mattews (RB, Fresno State) — Buy!

Two in a row! Sproles is small and LdT is gone! It’s a little bit of a reach, but they needed him.

A third! Who will the Eagles get? (Please be in the secondary!) Also, crowd is chanting “Eagles suck!” Giants fans?

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES!! pick Brandon Graham?? (DE/OLB, Michigan) — Don’t Buy!

Earl Thomas and Kyle Wilson are still on the board. Graham I think will be good (Football Outsiders call him the 3rd-best pass rusher this year), but we have Juqua Thomas and Darryl Tapp. Unless we move him to SAM linebacker? And historically we’ve sucked at evaluating high-round defensive ends. I’m going to be despondent for the next few picks.

Seattle Seahawks pick Earl Thomas (S, Texas) — Don’t Buy!

He should have been ours! He should have been ours! (This is a good pick for Seattle, though. Historically their secondary has sucked.)

New York Giants pick Jason Pierre-Paul (DE, South Florida) — Buy!

And I said yes yes yes yes yes yes. I’m happy again. Besides Clausen, JPP is the closest thing to a sure-thing first-round bust this year. Seriously. Workout warrior with minimal college experience and production? I love it. Now time to re-read this Football Outsiders piece on SackSEER and hope it comes true.

Tennessee Titans pick Derrick Morgan (DE, Georgia Tech) — Buy!

We’re in the middle of the run on pass rushers, and Morgan is a solid pick. He’s apparently just as good against the run and the pass, and much more complete than JPP. And ESPN pundits are right: another team re-building a unit that used to be its strength.

San Francisco 49ers pick Mike Iupati (G, Idaho) — Buy!

San Fran’s skill positions are solid (except at QB maybe), and their defense is OK. But their O-line sucked. With two first-round linemen, it should be better! And Berman on ESPN makes the good point: David Carr is a backup now, primarily because he got beat up behind a sucky O-line –  how much does his life suck right now?

Pittsburgh Steelers pick Maurkice Pouncey (C, Florida) — Buy!

Again, their O-line sucked, especially the middle. Solid gold pick, and probably not a rapist.

Atlanta Falcons pick Sean Weatherspoon (ILB, Missouri) — Buy!

This pick was predicted by everyone! That makes it good!

Houston Texans pick Kareem Jackson (CB, Alabama) — Buy!

I don’t know much about him, but the fact that Kyle Wilson hasn’t been picked yet suggests everyone might have over-rated him. A possibility for Eagles to pick up tomorrow?

Cincinnati Bengals pick Jermaine Gresham (TE, Oklahoma) — Buy!

Carson Palmer was under a voodoo spell for much of last season. Hopefully with a good tight end the Bengals can install a remedial offense while Palmer gets his sea legs back.

Denver trades back up! To New England! I guarantee both McDaniels and Belichick think they’re smarter than the other.

Denver Broncos pick Demaryius Thomas (WR, Georgia Tech) — Buy!

First off: Is ‘Demaryius’ the only word ever with a y-i? It’s redundant! But they lost Brandon Marshall, they need a receiver, Thomas doesn’t have the character issues that Dez Bryant does, and he looks like he’s a similar player as Marshall. And they got a bunch of picks trading down (and trading Marshall, too.) Nice work!

Green Bay Packers pick Bryan Bulaga (OT, Iowa) — Buy!

Aaron Rodgers played behind a sieve last year, so the Packers would take any tackle who fell to them. Bryan Bulaga looks like a Green Bay type player, which is to say that he’s white.

Dallas Cowboys pick Dez Bryant (WR, Oklahoma State) — Don’t Buy!

Fuuuuccckkkk. The Cowboys now have Jason Witten, Miles Austin AND Dez Bryant? And the Eagles neglected to pick up a cornerback or a safety? We’re fucked fucked fucked. Hope you like passing, Kevin Kolb, because you’re going to be playing from behind a lot.

10:05: Berman: “Tebow is on the phone! Baltimore is on the clock!…Oh, it’s Denver!”

Denver Broncos pick Tim Tebow (QB, Florida) — Buy!!!11!!!1!

Hope the other Broncos get used to hearing abour circumcision.

(I was tempted to just leave it at that. But I’m happy for Tebow. He seems like a very nice, completely sincere guy who just wants to be himself and love God as much as he can. And I’m happy as shit that Clausen is falling. If I was a legitimate analyst, I’d say something about his throwing motion — but I’m not so I won’t.)

((Also, how bad did this pick make Notre Dame fans feel?))

Arizona Cardinals pick Dan Williams (DT, Tennessee) — Buy!

He’s supposed to be a very good 3-4 nose tackle. Arizona runs a 3-4? Apparently. So then: good pick.

(Also, I just realized that Tim Tebow is probably now the richest virgin in America.)

New England Patriots pick Devin McCourtry (CB, Rutgers) — Buy!

This was a guy the Eagles were supposed to take at 24 if none of the better CBs fell to them. The Eagles didn’t take him early, and apparently the Patriots didn’t like any of the pass-rushers available here. So this makes sense. If I were a grader: solid B.

Miami Dolphins pick Jared Odrick (DE, Penn State) — Buy!

Of all the positions that get picked in the first round, is there any more underwhelming than 3-4 defensive end? They’re not huge like nose tackles, they don’t get bunches of sacks like outside linebackers or 4-3 ends; their main job is to stop the run. This guy seems alright at that, though.

New York Jets pick Kyle Wilson (CB, Boise State) — Buy!

The rich get richer. I wanted him to drop down to Philly in the second, but that was more of a ‘wish’ than a ‘hope.’ Now Rex Ryan has Revis, Cromartie and Wilson; he can blitz the shit out of anyone he wants with those guys holding down the back. (Also, as Aaron Schatz tweeted, Wilson is insurance if it turns out that Cromartie kinda sorta maybe sucks.)

Another trade! By the Lions??!?

Detroit Lions pick Jahvid Best (RB, California) — Don’t Buy!

If you are the Detroit Lions, what is on the top of your need list? Their defense is horrendous, and I’d say running back is maybe only their second- or third-biggest need on offense. But I get the reasoning: Matt Stafford needs weapons. “We’ll just outscore them all!” Get used to a lot of dumpoffs in the flat, Jahvid.

10:53: Time for the last two picks! Push it through!

Indianapolis Colts pick Jerry Hughes (DE/OLB, Texas Christian) — Buy!

Colts needed a pass rusher to spell Freeney and Mathis, and SackSEER loves this guy. Nice work! One left!

New Orleans Saints pick Patrick Robinson (CB, Florida State) — Don’t Buy!

The Eagles traded up just in time for the run on cornerbacks to happen between their two picks. I wasn’t in love with Robinson, but who’s left for tomorrow? But this is a good pick for the Saints. If you’re a blitzing defense, you can never have too many defensive backs.

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So: 32 picks, three-and-a-half hours, 23 ‘Buys,” eight “Don’t Buys” and one “dunno.” I’m very sad I didn’t get to use my Jimmy Clausen and Colt McCoy pictures, though. I’ll put them below, because there’s no way in hell I’m going to live-blog the second round:

And:

Hopefully McCoy goes to a team where they let him sit for a while, and Clausen goes to a team with a good sense of humor. But that’s a story for another time.

That’s all for now. I’m going to wait three years before looking at this post again and laugh wholeheartedly!